Heading into Week 13, NFL DFS pricing appears to be getting a bit friendlier. The WR slate in particular seems to feature a lot of value, and as a result, targeting sleepers and value plays at that position makes it easy to field a winning lineup. Our Week 13 DraftKings tournament lineup is taking on four receivers, with two upper-echelon players making the cut and being joined by two underpriced breakout candidates.
Thanks to the value at WR, we were able to spend up at a few other positions. We targeted a mid-tier value at QB instead of spending down as we have in previous weeks. We also targeted a top D/ST unit, a top TE, and spent over $7K at three positions to land some high-ceiling players. We also targeted some potential high-scoring games, including Vikings-Jaguars and Colts-Texans, but mostly our plan was to target some of the best matchups available, both the ones that are clearly great and the ones that are underrated.
WEEK 13 STANDARD RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
Per usual, we have a traditional QB-WR stack in this lineup to create the chance for double points. Elsewhere, we did take on a little bit of risk by choosing a running back from one of the NFL’s worst offenses and a couple of wideouts who haven’t seen a lot of targets this year, but there is a reason to be confident that each of those players could break out this week. Besides, you have to take some risks in tournaments to earn lineup differentiation, and this unit should certainly be a unique one.
WEEK 13 PPR RANKINGS:
Quarterback | Running back | Wide receiver | Tight end | D/ST | Kicker
This lineup is for Week 13 DraftKings main slate tournaments.
Cousins has been on a hot streak of late, as he has at least three TD passes in three of his past four games and has logged at least 292 passing yards in three consecutive outings. He posted 30.2 DK points last week without Adam Thielen at his disposal and should only be better with the top wideout likely to return this week. The Jaguars have allowed 24.1 DraftKings points per game (DK PPG) to QBs this year, the third most in the NFL, and their 23 passing TDs allowed are second only to the Cowboys. Cousins should have another strong game, and at a mid-tier price tag, he’s an excellent pick for GPP lineups.
Ekeler played last week for the first time since Week 4 and was a huge part of the Chargers’ offense. He ended up with 25 touches, including 11 catches on a whopping 16 targets, and ended the day with 129 total yards. Ekeler is facing the Patriots in Week 13, and while the matchup will be a tough one — the Patriots allow a middle-of-the-road 23.4 DK PPG to RBs — Ekeler will have a sky-high receiving floor thanks to the performance of Justin Herbert. If Bill Belichick’s defense focuses on taking away Herbert’s downfield weapons, Ekeler could catch quite a few short passes. Since DraftKings uses PPR scoring, that will matter and getting Ekeler $2,400 cheaper than the positional ceiling seems like a bargain.
There’s a lot to like about Montgomery this week. First off, his $5,500 price seems way too low considering that he is basically serving as a three-down back for the Bears. Second, his matchup is excellent this week, as the Lions have surrendered a league-high 33.8 DK PPG to RBs this season. That includes a whopping 21 total TDs — 14 on the ground and seven through the air. Finally, Montgomery is coming off his first 100-yard game of the season and caught a TD against the Packers. Granted, some of his production came in garbage time, but he still showed well against a porous Packers run defense. Picking Montgomery at this price allows us to spend up at receiver, so this play could be well worth it, especially if the Bears can stay competitive with the Lions in Week 13.
Stacking Cousins with Thielen makes a ton of sense in a matchup that’s great for both players. Before missing last week’s game as a result of a positive COVID test, Thielen had posted a 20.3 DK point game against the Bears and a 35.3 DK point game against the Cowboys. It seemed like he was just starting to heat up again after a couple of tough weeks. Thielen can be a bit of a boom-or-bust player, as he has three games with 6.1 or fewer points and four games with 29.2 or more points, but he should pan out in a battle with a Jaguars secondary that has allowed the sixth-most receiving yards to wideouts this year (2,042).
The 2020 season has been a massive disappointment for Thomas, but the good news for his owners is that he has done well in two starts with Taysom Hill at the helm of the team. Thomas has seen 18 targets in those two games combined, catching 13 for 154 yards. The last time he played the Falcons two weeks ago, he logged 22.4 DK points and his first 100-yard receiving game of the year. Getting him at just $7K is a good value and will give our lineup a high ceiling. After all, the Falcons have allowed the second-most DK PPG to WRs this year (44.9), so Thomas should be well positioned to take advantage of that.
After spending up for a couple of receivers, we needed to find some sleepers to fill out the rest of our lineup. Hilton would qualify as one. The long-time top receiver for the Colts had his best game of the season against the Titans last week, as he caught four passes for 81 yards and a TD. In three of his past four games against the Texans dating back to 2018, Hilton has posted at least 15 DK points. He knows how to beat this Texans team, and with their top cornerback Bradley Roby now suspended, Hilton could hit some chunk plays against a weakened secondary. At just a bit more than $4K, Hilton’s upside is worth banking on, especially if the Texans focus more on stopping the emerging Michael Pittman Jr.
Surprisingly, the Bears have allowed the third-most DK PPG to TEs this year at a mark of 15.7. The main reason for this is that they have allowed 62 receptions to the position, good for the fourth most in the league. Hockenson has posted seven games with double-digit DK points and only has one outing on the year in which he has posted fewer than 9.3 DK points. Last time he faced the Bears in Week 1, he posted 16.6 DK points, his second-best outing of the year. Hockenson is consistent, and while he is one of the higher-priced TEs on the slate, paying up for him is worth it.
The Texans lost Will Fuller for the rest of the season to a six-game suspension for violating the league’s PED policy. This news came just days after they waived veteran Kenny Stills and placed Randall Cobb (toe) on IR. Of the Texans’ top four receivers this year, only Brandin Cooks is still standing, and he’ll need some help to keep this offense afloat. Coutee has just six catches for 38 yards and a TD in three games this season, but he should see more targets than the three per game he was averaging before the Texans lost all of these receivers. And while the Colts have been a strong defense for most of the year, they have had some struggles against the pass in recent weeks, so Deshaun Watson should be able to take advantage of that.
All you have to do is look at Carson Wentz’s numbers here to justify going with the Packers defense here. Wentz has thrown a league-leading 15 picks and has been sacked a career-high 46 times, which is also good for the league lead. He has only played one game where he hasn’t turned the ball over and one game where he has been sacked fewer than three times. The Packers defense is starting to round into form and just had three sacks, forced three turnovers, and logged a defensive TD against Mitchell Trubisky and the Bears. They should do just as well getting heat on Wentz, especially at home.