The NCAA has taken grand steps towards transparency with its NCAA Tournament seeding course of over the previous a number of years, beginning with the mock choice committee train for media members over a decade in the past. That has been a welcome improvement.
And on Saturday, for the fourth yr in a row, the choice committee convened and hammered out a take a look at the NCAA Tournament’s top 16 seeds if the season had ended that day. The seeds arent binding, after all, however the reveal does give us a take a look at how the committee members view groups with their present resumes.
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So what have been going to do in the present day is take these 16 groups the top 4 seed strains and challenge out a bit. Based mostly on what theyve already completed and how their remaining schedule seems, have been making an attempt to reply this query: Are these groups extra more likely to keep the place they’re now, to fall a seed line or two, and even soar up a seed line?
Lets get began.
No. 1 seeds
1. Baylor (21-1)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 5 | NET: 3 | Quadrant 1 file: 8-0
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. At this level, how are you going to doubt Baylor, the top general seed from Saturday’s reveal? The Bears have exceeded all expectations, and they havent simply been piling up empty wins. They received at Kansas and knocked off top-30 NET groups Butler, Arizona, Villanova and Texas Tech. There may be margin for error right here.
2. Kansas (20-3)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 1 | NET: 4 | Quadrant 1 file: 10-3
Keep, rise or fall? Fall. Have a look at the schedule. There are three different Massive 12 groups in the NET top 20, and the Jayhawks nonetheless need to play two on the highway. In the event that they lose these two no disgrace in that that pushes them to 5 losses. And with the Choice Committees apparent enjoyment of glowing data exterior the Energy 5 (with Gonzaga, San Diego State and Dayton among the top two seed strains), that is perhaps a bit a lot to beat.
3. Gonzaga (25-1)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 2 | NET: 2 | Quadrant 1 file: 5-1
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. Theyre on the No. 1 seed line now, and theyre not more likely to lose once more earlier than Choice Sunday.
4. San Diego State (24-0)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 4 | NET: 1 | Quadrant 1 file: 4-0
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. The Aztecs are favored by at the very least eight factors in their last 5 regular-season video games on KenPom.com, and in the event that they make it by way of the common season undefeated, its onerous to think about the committee bumping them off the top seed line no matter what occurs in the Mountain West Tournament (assume Saint Josephs in 2004).
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No. 2 seeds
5. Duke (20-3)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 3 | NET: 6 | Quadrant 1 file: 3-1
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. The ACC this season simply doesnt provide the kind of elite victories the Blue Devils would want to climb above groups comparable to Gonzaga and San Diego State. You see the three Quadrant 1 wins, proper? Thats not the everyday energy of resume have been used to seeing from the Blue Devils.
6. Dayton (21-2)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 6 | NET: 5 | Quadrant 1 file: 3-2
Keep, rise or fall? Rise. I do know, it sounds loopy to think about a state of affairs, in 2020, the place three of the 4 groups on the No. 1 seed line come from groups exterior the normal energy conferences (with Baylor, of all groups, because the lone energy consultant). However we’re near a state of affairs the place that occurs. Its very attainable (possible?) that Dayton wins out. If Kansas loses a pair instances and Duke and Louisville slip up in ACC play this might occur.
7. Louisville (21-3)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 9, NET: 7, Quadrant 1 file: 3-3
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. The Cardinals dont have something resembling a foul and even mediocre loss, and they’ve stable wins in opposition to Duke and Michigan. However, like we talked about with Duke, the ACC doesnt actually provide alternatives for elite wins. Of Louisvilles remaining seven video games, just one at Florida State would transfer the needle in any respect.
8. West Virginia (18-5)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 7 | NET: 9 | Quadrant 1 file: 5-3
Keep, rise or fall? Fall. This was true even earlier than the Mountaineers misplaced at Oklahoma by 10 this weekend, as defined by SNs school hoops guru, Mike DeCourcy.
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No. 3 seeds
9. Maryland (19-4)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 8, NET: 8 | Quadrant 1 file: 6-4
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. When the Terps have been in the midst of shedding 4 instances in seven video games, a spot on the No. Three seed line appeared, nicely, unlikely. However theyve received six in a row, together with three on the highway, and are taking part in like a workforce intending to maneuver up. However they nonetheless have a tricky highway forward: Six of their last eight video games are in opposition to top-35 groups in line with the KenPom top 35, a slate that features 4 highway contests.
10. Florida State (20-3)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 19 | NET: 13 | Quadrant 1 file: 3-2
Keep, rise or fall? Rise. Shall we say, for arguments sake, the Seminoles observe the KenPom predictions and go 7-1 the remainder of the best way, with a loss at Duke and a house win in opposition to Louisville. That might put them at 27-Four on the yr and 14-4 in Quad 1/2 video games (relying on how a few these fall on the cut up line). That actually seems like a stable No. 2 seed, doesnt it?
11. Seton Corridor (18-5)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 12 | NET: 12 | Quadrant 1 file: 8-4
Keep, rise or fall? Rise. Have a look at that 8-Four file vs. Quad 1 groups. Just one workforce Kansas has greater than eight Quadrant 1 victories.
12. Villanova (17-6)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 28 | NET: 18 | Quadrant 1 file: 5-6
Keep, rise or fall? Fall. It was just a little stunning to see Villanova on the No. Three seed line, what with the under-.500 Quadrant 1 file and laptop rankings that lagged decrease than the No. 12 general seed the Wildcats held in this reveal.
No. 4 seeds
13. Auburn (21-2)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 30 | NET: 15 | Quadrant 1 file: 4-2
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. Of their previous 5 wins, three have been in additional time and a fourth was by a scant 4 factors. Auburn is prospering in shut video games, however that seems like a shaky path to prolonged success. Additionally, their finest nonconference wins are in opposition to bubble-at-best A-10 groups Richmond and Saint Louis. Thats not the kind of factor that persuades the committee to provide a workforce a top 2 or Three seed. The Tigers aren’t going to bully their means up a seed line or two with that skinny of a resume. In the event that they hold profitable and the groups forward of them stumble? Then it is attainable.
14. Oregon (18-6)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 25 | NET: 25 | Quadrant 1 file: 6-4
Keep, rise or fall? Fall. The Geese have quacked up back-to-back 10-point highway losses to groups exterior of even the bubble dialog, Stanford and Oregon State. They do have good wins in opposition to Seton Corridor, Houston, Arizona, Michigan and Memphis (when the Tigers had James Wiseman) however this seems like a workforce thatll settle properly into the 5-6 seed vary.
15. Butler (18-6)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 23 | NET: 14 | Quadrant 1 file: 7-5
Keep, rise or fall? Keep. The seven Quadrant 1 wins are a pleasant little nugget to have in your pocket when the choice committee will get to scrubbing the resumes. The Massive East is hard, although, and its simple to drop a few fast video games.
16. Michigan State (16-8)
Numbers of word: KenPom: 10 | NET: 11 | Quadrant 1 file: 2-7
Keep, rise or fall? Fall. This reveal occurred Saturday morning, earlier than the Spartans misplaced at Michigan, their third loss in a row and fifth in their previous eight video games. That 2-7 mark in Quadrant 1 video games isnt going to assist their case, both.